Produces a reference-class estimate by defining a class of similar past cases, taking their base-rate distribution of outcomes, and anchoring the forecast on that outside view rather than the optimistic inside view, with a conservative adjustment for specifics. Use when forecasting cost, time, or od
Produces a reference-class estimate by defining a class of similar past cases, taking their base-rate distribution of outcomes, and anchoring the forecast on that outside view rather than the optimistic inside view, with a conservative adjustment for specifics. Use when forecasting cost, time, or odds of success for a project prone to optimism or the planning fallacy.