Use when the user must forecast a duration, cost, success rate, or outcome and is tempted to estimate from the specifics of their own case, which systematically underestimates and over-optimizes. Runs reference-class forecasting (the outside view): defines the prediction, builds in parallel a class
Use when the user must forecast a duration, cost, success rate, or outcome and is tempted to estimate from the specifics of their own case, which systematically underestimates and over-optimizes. Runs reference-class forecasting (the outside view): defines the prediction, builds in parallel a class of similar past cases, constructs the empirical distribution of how that class actually turned out,
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