reference-class-forecasting

SKILLWorkflowcommunauté
v0.0.0l4ciMITMis à jour il y a 3 moisSource →

Use when the user must forecast a duration, cost, success rate, or outcome and is tempted to estimate from the specifics of their own case, which systematically underestimates and over-optimizes. Runs reference-class forecasting (the outside view): defines the prediction, builds in parallel a class

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il y a 3 moisDernière mise à jour
Skill
Auteurl4ci
Version0.0.0
LicenceMIT
CatégorieWorkflow
Formatsskill.md
PromptNon publié
Compatibilité
Claude✓ Pris en charge
Cursor—
Copilot—
ChatGPT—
Gemini—
À propos

Use when the user must forecast a duration, cost, success rate, or outcome and is tempted to estimate from the specifics of their own case, which systematically underestimates and over-optimizes. Runs reference-class forecasting (the outside view): defines the prediction, builds in parallel a class of similar past cases, constructs the empirical distribution of how that class actually turned out,

Mots-clés
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