Use when stating confidence (\"I'm sure\", \"definitely\", \"99%\"), giving confidence intervals, making probabilistic claims, or reviewing a track record of predictions. Applies overconfidence calibration research (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff; Alpert & Raiffa) — subjective certainty systematically exc
Use when stating confidence (\"I'm sure\", \"definitely\", \"99%\"), giving confidence intervals, making probabilistic claims, or reviewing a track record of predictions. Applies overconfidence calibration research (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff; Alpert & Raiffa) — subjective certainty systematically exceeds accuracy.
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