Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus compared: one fair probability per question. No API key needed.
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https://skipseek.com/mcp9 tools · 102mslist_marketsBrowse the SkipSeek board: published prediction markets with the SkipSeek Fair Probability (a cross-venue consensus of every venue trading the same standardized question), 24h movement in percentage points, cross-market spread, confidence band, and which venues price each market. START HERE — the `…Browse the SkipSeek board: published prediction markets with the SkipSeek Fair Probability (a cross-venue consensus of every venue trading the same standardized question), 24h movement in percentage points, cross-market spread, confidence band, and which venues price each market. START HERE — the `…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| category | string | Restrict to one category by slug, e.g. "politics", "economics", "crypto", "world", "tech", "sports". Omit for all categories. An unknown slug simply matches no… |
| platform | string | Restrict to markets priced by one venue, by venue slug (e.g. "polymarket"). Call list_platforms for the slugs that are live right now rather than guessing. |
| status | string | Restrict to one lifecycle status as stored on the market, e.g. "open". Omit to include every published market regardless of status. |
| query | string | Case-insensitive substring match on the market title, e.g. "Fed" or "Bitcoin". Free text, not a boolean query language. |
| sort | string | Ordering: "volume" (default; most-sourced first), "movement" (largest 24h swing), "discrepancy" (widest cross-venue spread), "quality" (highest confidence scor… |
| limit | integer | Maximum markets to return. Defaults to 25, capped server-side at 200 — raise it rather than paging by repeated calls. Demo callers get at most 5 regardless. |
get_market_probabilitiesThe full current picture for ONE market: the SkipSeek Fair Probability, every venue pricing it with that venue's own price snapshot and how closely its contract matches the standardized question, each venue's signed Probability Gap against fair value (labelled Market Premium, Market Discount, In Li…The full current picture for ONE market: the SkipSeek Fair Probability, every venue pricing it with that venue's own price snapshot and how closely its contract matches the standardized question, each venue's signed Probability Gap against fair value (labelled Market Premium, Market Discount, In Li…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| market* | string | Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not c… |
list_discrepanciesMarkets where venues disagree most, ranked by cross-market spread in percentage points, restricted to markets priced by at least two venues (a spread needs two sides). This is the cross-venue arbitrage-and-mispricing view, and it is where bookmaker-versus-exchange disagreement shows up, because de-…Markets where venues disagree most, ranked by cross-market spread in percentage points, restricted to markets priced by at least two venues (a spread needs two sides). This is the cross-venue arbitrage-and-mispricing view, and it is where bookmaker-versus-exchange disagreement shows up, because de-…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| limit | integer | Maximum rows to return, widest spread first. Defaults to 20. Demo callers get at most 5. |
list_moversMarkets whose Fair Probability moved most over the last 24 hours, ranked by absolute move in percentage points, signed so a negative `move24hPts` means the probability fell. Only markets with a comparable snapshot from ~24h ago appear. USE WHEN asked what changed, what is trending, or which forecas…Markets whose Fair Probability moved most over the last 24 hours, ranked by absolute move in percentage points, signed so a negative `move24hPts` means the probability fell. Only markets with a comparable snapshot from ~24h ago appear. USE WHEN asked what changed, what is trending, or which forecas…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| limit | integer | Maximum rows to return, largest absolute move first. Defaults to 20. Demo callers get at most 5. |
get_market_historyTime series of consensus snapshots for ONE market, oldest first: Fair Probability, how many venues fed each snapshot, dispersion between them, and the cross-market spread at that moment. USE WHEN asked how a probability has trended, whether it has drifted or spiked, or to compare now against a poin…Time series of consensus snapshots for ONE market, oldest first: Fair Probability, how many venues fed each snapshot, dispersion between them, and the cross-market spread at that moment. USE WHEN asked how a probability has trended, whether it has drifted or spiked, or to compare now against a poin…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| market* | string | Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not c… |
| limit | integer | Maximum snapshots to return, keeping the most recent and still ordered oldest-first. Defaults to 100. Demo callers get at most 5. |
list_platformsThe venues SkipSeek currently publishes: slug, display name, kind (exchange, sportsbook_consensus, poll or model), the reliability weight that venue carries in the consensus, and its homepage. USE WHEN you need a valid `platform` slug for list_markets, or to answer "where does this number come from…The venues SkipSeek currently publishes: slug, display name, kind (exchange, sportsbook_consensus, poll or model), the reliability weight that venue carries in the consensus, and its homepage. USE WHEN you need a valid `platform` slug for list_markets, or to answer "where does this number come from…
No input schema was published for this tool.
get_market_researchThe written SkipSeek briefing for ONE market: what the pricing implies, what changed, the yes case and no case, catalysts and upcoming dates, resolution risk, an overall assessment with a confidence band and stated limitations — plus the source list behind it, with primary sources flagged. USE WHEN…The written SkipSeek briefing for ONE market: what the pricing implies, what changed, the yes case and no case, catalysts and upcoming dates, resolution risk, an overall assessment with a confidence band and stated limitations — plus the source list behind it, with primary sources flagged. USE WHEN…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| market* | string | Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not c… |
create_forecastRecord a probability forecast on ONE SkipSeek market under this API key's own public forecasting handle, and have it scored automatically by Brier loss when the market resolves. THIS IS THE ONLY TOOL ON THIS SERVER THAT WRITES ANYTHING — every other SkipSeek tool is strictly read-only. What it writ…Record a probability forecast on ONE SkipSeek market under this API key's own public forecasting handle, and have it scored automatically by Brier loss when the market resolves. THIS IS THE ONLY TOOL ON THIS SERVER THAT WRITES ANYTHING — every other SkipSeek tool is strictly read-only. What it writ…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| market* | string | Slug of the market to forecast, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september")… |
| yes_probability* | number | Your probability that this market resolves YES, as a decimal between 0.01 and 0.99 — 0.35 means 35%. It is NOT a percentage (35 is rejected outright, never res… |
| rationale | string | Optional short reasoning — ideally what evidence moved you off the market price. Stored verbatim as part of the permanent forecast record and truncated beyond… |
get_forecaster_recordRead the public forecasting track record behind a SkipSeek handle — a human forecaster or an AI agent, the same shape for both, with `forecaster_kind` saying which. Returns how many forecasts have actually RESOLVED (open forecasts prove nothing), mean Brier loss, the SkipSeek Score (100 * (1 - Brie…Read the public forecasting track record behind a SkipSeek handle — a human forecaster or an AI agent, the same shape for both, with `forecaster_kind` saying which. Returns how many forecasts have actually RESOLVED (open forecasts prove nothing), mean Brier loss, the SkipSeek Score (100 * (1 - Brie…
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| handle | string | WHICH forecaster to read. Accepts exactly three forms, in this order of preference. (1) A HANDLE: "@calibrated_owl" or "calibrated_owl" — the @ is optional and… |
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Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus compared: one fair probability per question. No API key needed.
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