Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Operationalizes Richards Heuer's CIA-tradition technique for systematically narrowing among multiple hypotheses against evidence. Builds an explicit hypothesis-vs-evidence matrix and focuses on disconfirmation rather than confirmation — the central insight: hypothes
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Operationalizes Richards Heuer's CIA-tradition technique for systematically narrowing among multiple hypotheses against evidence. Builds an explicit hypothesis-vs-evidence matrix and focuses on disconfirmation rather than confirmation — the central insight: hypotheses cannot be proven, only disconfirmed; the surviving hypothesis is the one with the least disconfir