think-expected-value-decision-tree

SKILLWorkflowcommunity
v0.0.0product-on-purposeApache-2.0Updated todaySource →

Evaluates competing actions under uncertainty by building a decision tree of choice and chance nodes, placing explicit probabilities on outcomes the decider does not control, rolling the tree back to an expected value per option, recommending the best-EV branch, and adding a what-flips-it note namin

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todayLast update
Skill
Authorproduct-on-purpose
Version0.0.0
LicenseApache-2.0
CategoryWorkflow
Formatsskill.md
PromptNot published
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Claude✓ Supported
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ChatGPT
Gemini
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Evaluates competing actions under uncertainty by building a decision tree of choice and chance nodes, placing explicit probabilities on outcomes the decider does not control, rolling the tree back to an expected value per option, recommending the best-EV branch, and adding a what-flips-it note naming the probability or value that would reverse the choice. Use when a decision turns on uncertain out

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